Even a high-quality business
can be a poor investment if too high a price is paid. That's
why we demand a second criterion be met before making an investment
- a cheap price relative to value.
We typically will wait for a high-quality business to trade
at 70% of our estimate of intrinsic value before we start
to invest. This margin of safety serves us in two ways. If
we're right about the prospects of a business our investment
return is greatly enhanced. But if we're wrong about the business
prospects, we won't lose a substantial portion of our capital.
We wish that we could always totally fill our portfolios with
obviously superior, well-entrenched businesses trading at
substantial discounts to their values. This, however, is not
a reasonable expectation except at the bottom of a brutal
bear market. The implication is that during most market environments
we have to augment our ownership of cheap high-quality businesses
with some even cheaper average businesses.
Our sell discipline has three rules. Our
primary rule is to sell when an investment is priced at a
premium to our estimate of value by the marketplace. We also
will sell if we anticipate that the fundamentals of a company
will deteriorate and this deterioration is not reflected in
the market price. Lastly, we will sell an investment if we
find another company of equal or higher quality that is significantly
cheaper.
The members of our Investment Committee
are all generalists and spend the majority of their time thinking
about investments. We rely little on Wall Street research
but instead perform independent fundamental and valuation
analyses to draw our own conclusions. The Investment Committee
formally meets weekly and informally almost continuously throughout
each day. Collectively, we decide which trades to effect in
the portfolios. |